白糖早报-20250902

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - September 2, 2025 - Report Source: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bearish impact on the global supply - demand fundamentals has weakened as Brazil's sugar production is adjusted downward. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 is currently close to the price of imported sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. Unless the price of foreign sugar drops below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou Sugar 01. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 5580 - 5640 during the day [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the available report. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6000, and the basis for the 01 contract is 391, indicating a premium over futures [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7]. - Expectations: With the downward adjustment of Brazil's production, the bearish impact on the global supply - demand fundamentals has weakened. Zhengzhou Sugar 01 is close to the price of imported sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. Unless the foreign sugar price drops below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 5580 - 5640 during the day [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No content related to today's focus is provided in the available report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons, StoneX forecasts a reduced surplus of 3.04 million tons, and Green Pool estimates a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [10]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand: In the 24/25 season, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, with a sales rate of 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - Import Costs: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs has changed over time. For example, in July 2024, the ICE raw sugar average price was 18.5 - 20.7 cents/pound, and the refined and taxed cost was 6330 - 6520 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7].