大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate today, with the agricultural film demand recovering but remaining weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being neutral [4]. - The PP market is also expected to oscillate today, with new production capacity being put into operation recently and the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving improving, while the industrial inventory is neutral [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned and is expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has increased slightly, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7250 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -20, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract oscillates on the market. The demand for agricultural film recovers but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - Likely factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned and is expected to be introduced in September. There is new production capacity for PP, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with the demand for pipes and plastic weaving improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is bearish [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - Main positions: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract oscillates on the market. There is new production capacity recently, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [8]. - Likely factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main logic: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies drive the market [7][10]. - Main risk points: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18].