大越期货天胶早报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended [6] 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. However, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market has support below, and short - long trading is advised [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is high. Auto production and sales are seasonally declining, but tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are rising [6][8][25][31][34] - Price: The spot price of 23 - year whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 1st, and the base difference strengthened on September 1st. The spot price is 14,950, and the base difference is - 910 [10][37] - Inventory: Exchange inventories have changed slightly recently. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, while Qingdao area inventories decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [6][16][19] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply and bearish domestic economic indicators [8]