大越期货尿素早报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production, high inventory, and limited domestic demand. However, international urea prices are strong, and export profits are still high, but export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors include the strength of international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has recently oscillated and declined. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, causing the futures price to rise, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, and agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, export profits are still strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), Shandong's spot price is 1790 (-20), Henan's spot price is 1810 (-10), and FOB China is 3031 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1743 (-3), the basis is 47 (-17), the price of the UR05 contract is 1784 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1670 (-9) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 7205 (+732), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 859,000 tons (-37,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 543,000 tons (+2,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]