Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the analysis of fuel oil, the overall price is expected to be slightly stronger, indicating a moderately positive outlook [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The overall fuel oil market fundamentals have slightly improved, and the overall price is expected to run slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2860 range, and the LU2511 in the 3510 - 3560 range [3]. - Overnight geopolitical risk events have boosted the market, and fuel oil prices have followed suit. The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure slightly down but potential support from reduced Western shipments and moderate demand. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory has decreased, which is also bullish. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions (bearish), while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long (bullish). Overall, the price is expected to be slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to trade between 2820 - 2860, and the LU2511 between 3510 - 3560 [3]. 3.2多空关注 - Likely to be bullish: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - Likely to be bearish: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3.3基本面数据 - Fundamentals: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The 9 - 10 month swap spread for Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount on August 29 has narrowed to - 42 cents per ton [3]. - Basis: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan per ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 133 yuan per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 27 was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels [3]. - Market chart: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - Main positions: The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions, while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long [3]. 3.4价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts and their spreads, with the FU main contract price down 0.18% and the LU main contract price down 0.57%. The FU basis has increased by 174.63%, and the LU basis by 84.18% [5]. 3.5库存数据 - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 18 to August 27 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease of 203 million barrels in the week of August 27 to 2188.9 million barrels [8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250902
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-02 02:53