贵金属早报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The release of US PCE data has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant position - building has pushed up the gold price. Although the increase in positions is difficult to maintain at a high level, the gold price is expected to be strong but with a narrowing increase. The premium of Shanghai Gold has converged to - 0.9 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: The US PCE data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and combined with tariff concerns, the silver price has risen significantly. With the possibility of increased silver tariffs and strong capital promotion, the silver price is expected to remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: US PCE data increased interest - rate cut expectations, large - scale position - building pushed up the gold price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [4]. - Silver: US PCE data and tariff concerns led to a significant rise in the silver price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 120 kg to 39744 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11231 kg to 1207227 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan in Hokkaido - Tuesday and Wednesday: Vietnam on holiday - 17:00: Eurozone's preliminary CPI for August - 19:30: Participation of an ECB Executive Board member in the 2025 ECB Legal Conference - 20:45: Speech by an ECB Governing Council member at a payment - related event - 21:45: Final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August - 22:00: US ISM Manufacturing Index for August and construction spending for July [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continues, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the increase in the silver price may expand [13]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on September 1, 2025, was 230,052, an increase of 8.07% from August 31; the short - position volume was 67,515, an increase of 13.39%; the net position was 162,537, an increase of 6.00% [30]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on September 1, 2025, was 367,335, an increase of 10.49% from August 29; the short - position volume was 279,207, an increase of 11.74%; the net position was 88,128, an increase of 6.69% [31].