Report Information - The report is the "Grease Morning Report" dated September 2, 2025, from the Investment Consulting Department, with analyst Wang Mingwei [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 2024/2025 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,420, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,404, with a basis of 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short [3] - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,910, with a basis of 109, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: On August 22, it was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Palm Oil Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [21] - Total Domestic Oil Inventory: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [23] Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [13] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [15]
大越期货油脂早报-20250902
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-02 02:53