LPG早报-20250902

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a mixed trend. The PG main contract fluctuates weakly, and the basis first weakens and then strengthens. The 9 - 10 and 10 - 11 spreads change. The warehouse receipt registration volume increases. The 9 - month CP official price remains stable. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. PDH, alkylation, and MTBE have different operating rates. The combustion off - season is ending but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - Price Changes: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different changes. For example, South China LPG drops from 4620 to 4580, a decrease of 40 [1]. - Spread Changes: The 9 - 10 month spread is - 721 (- 212), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 84 (- 3). The FEI - CP is 21.5 (+ 4.5), and the AFEL offshore discount is 5.5 (- 0.5), while the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+ 8) [1]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13207 hands (+ 320), with different changes in different companies such as Qingdao Yunda (- 55), Wuchan Zhongda (- 65), and Donghua (+ 440) [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Operating Rates: PDH operating rate is 73.02% (- 2.64pct), alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+ 0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+ 0). Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week and is expected to increase load next week, and Hebei Haiwei plans to stop work [1]. - Profit Situation: PDH spot profit changes little, paper profit fluctuates downward, alkylation oil production gross profit declines, and MTBE gross profit moves down [1]. - Supply and Demand: The combustion off - season is gradually ending, but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs [1].