Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Report team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Data | Variety | Location | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2230 | 2230 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2210 | 2230 | 10 | | | Weifang | 2400 | 2388 | -6 | | | Shekou | 2360 | 2380 | 10 | | | Basis | 52 | 37 | -15 | | | Trade profit/Import profit and loss | 10/254 | 15/285 | 0/31 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2850 | 2850 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2930 | 2900 | -30 | | | Basis | 330 | 305 | -25 | | | Processing profit | 17 | 15 | -2 | [3] Core View - Corn: In the short - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in the production areas. In the long - term, focus on the selling enthusiasm in the production areas after the new - season corn is on the market [4]. - Starch: In the short - term, prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and high inventory continues to pressure prices. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the bearish view [4]. Group 3: Sugar Market Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thai Import Profit | Brazilian Import Profit | Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/26 | 6030 | 5950 | 5860 | 398 | 259 | 441 | 15316 | | 2025/09/01 | 6000 | 5910 | 5825 | 391 | - | - | 13441 | | Change | 0 | -50 | -35 | -7 | - | - | -1875 | [5] Core View - International market: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The final output is uncertain due to low yield and high sugar - making ratio. - Domestic market: Follows the trend of raw sugar. With imported sugar arriving at ports and lower prices of processed sugar, there is significant pressure on the futures market [5]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Data | Variety | Index | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 3128 | 15240 | 15175 | -65 | | | Imported M - grade US cotton | 76.9 | - | - | | | Cotlook A (FE) | - | - | - | | | Import profit | - | - | - | | | Warehouse receipts + Forecast | 6982 | 6320 | -662 | | Cotton Yarn | Vietnamese yarn | 2.51 | 2.51 | 0 | | | Spot price | 20920 | 20920 | 0 | | | Vietnamese yarn import profit | 469 | 488 | 19 | | | 32S spinning profit | -1082 | -1013 | 69 | [8] Core View - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [8]. Group 5: Eggs Market Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Live Pigs | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/26 | 3.27 | 3.20 | 2.95 | 2.95 | 3.11 | 288 | 3.65 | 4.40 | 20.01 | | 2025/09/01 | 3.27 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.95 | 3.18 | 445 | 3.55 | 4.10 | 20.01 | | Change | 0 | 0 | -0.05 | 0 | 0.07 | 157 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0 | [13] Core View - Egg prices rebounded rapidly from the low in mid - July due to supply and demand factors. However, weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a decline in early August. The futures market has adjusted its premium expectations. Attention should be paid to the culling rhythm of laying hens and the release of cold - stored eggs [13]. Group 6: Apples Market Data | Date | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common - grade | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | 1 - month Basis | 5 - month Basis | 10 - month Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/26 | 7300 | - | - | - | - | -744 | -722 | -824 | | 2025/09/01 | 7300 | - | 37 | 25 | 14 | -961 | -913 | -1074 | | Change | 0 | - | 37 | 25 | 14 | -217 | -191 | -250 | [16][17] Core View - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national output is expected to be similar to last year. Currently, apple consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest apparent inventory in the past five years and slightly slower destocking. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the final output after the bag - removing season [17]. Group 7: Live Pigs Market Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/26 | 13.68 | 13.80 | 13.67 | 13.85 | 14.05 | -180 | | 2025/09/01 | 14.18 | 14.15 | 14.17 | 14.50 | 14.55 | 555 | | Change | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 735 | [17] Core View - Live pig prices are in a range - bound pattern. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support this year, but medium - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Near - month contracts are adjusting their premiums, while far - month contracts still have premium expectations. Pay attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [17].
农产品早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-02 03:22