原油成品油早报-20250902

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices falling on Friday. At the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil contracts strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil contracts strengthened significantly. Refining margins in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the crack spread of gasoline in the United States strengthened, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet for the fourth quarter is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, and the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 million and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have increased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased seasonally, with absolute inventories at a historically low level for the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and gasoline and diesel inventories in the United States have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels (in Europe and Africa), and the spreads of crude oil contracts are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the transition between the off - peak and peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread forecast of diesel in Europe for the fourth quarter is raised [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily News - Market expects OPEC+ to pause production increase at this week's meeting. After completing the plan to restore the production cut capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, OPEC+ members have sent mixed signals about the next step. Despite stable recent demand, the IEA points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Some analysts predict that OPEC+ may be forced to cut production next year to avoid a serious supply surplus [3] - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have suspended oil supply to Indian refiner Nayara. After the two major Gulf oil - producing countries stopped supplying, Nayara's crude oil imports in August were completely dependent on Russia. Sanctions have caused payment difficulties for Nayara when purchasing crude oil from SOMO [4] - HSBC maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel. If OECD region inventories increase or OPEC+ continues to increase supply, the risk will be on the downside. As summer ends and demand declines, the market supply surplus is expected to intensify in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [4] - Houthi rebels claim to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. In retaliation for Israel's air strike on Sanaa, the Houthi rebels said they would escalate military attacks on Israel and shipping blockades [4][5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, expected - 915,000 barrels, previous value - 792,000 barrels [5] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was 2.343 million barrels, expected 928,000 barrels, previous value 714,000 barrels [5] - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [5][6]