《能源化工》日报-20250902

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - Supply: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - Demand: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - Supply - Demand: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - Supply: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - Demand: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - Supply: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - Supply: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - Demand: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - Supply: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - Demand: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - Price and Spread: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - Supply: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - Demand: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].