大越期货PVC期货早报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry in the report is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects coexisting. The current demand may continue to be weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [13][14][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Overall Rating: Bearish [11] - Positive Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13] - Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - Main Logic: The overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand may continue to be weak [7] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2697.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 134 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. The social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may continue to be weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [9]