大越期货豆粕早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish consolidation phase in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The U.S. soybean market is influenced by the expected high yield and the progress of China - U.S. trade negotiations, waiting for further guidance on the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. In the domestic market, factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the premium of the spot price, and the good recent demand all have an impact on the market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is neutral in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3940 and 4040. It is affected by the U.S. soybean market, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but it is also restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and the soybean A2511 contract between 3940 and 4040 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the U.S. Agricultural Report, and it is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, affected by the relatively positive data from the August U.S. Agricultural Report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty of China - U.S. trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out [10].