广发期货《有色》日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Copper: The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. Copper prices will at least remain volatile. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500. [1] - Aluminum: The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", with limited upside and downside space, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market presents a resonance pattern of improved macro - expectations and fundamentals, but high prices suppress downstream purchases. The short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy futures price fluctuates downward with the aluminum price. If the import ratio remains stable and the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap aluminum is limited, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton. [5] - Zinc: The supply side of zinc has a loose expectation, and the price may mainly fluctuate. The upward continuous rebound requires an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in the non - recession interest - rate cut expectation. The downward breakthrough requires an unexpected strengthening of TC and continuous inventory accumulation. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 23,000. [7] - Tin: Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, boosting the tin price. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with an operating range of 265,000 - 285,000. [9] - Nickel: The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 126,000. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space of the price. [11] - Stainless Steel: The short - term stainless steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400. The raw material price is firm, providing cost support, but the spot demand is weak. [13] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is expected to mainly oscillate widely after the price center moves down, with the main contract in the range of 72,000 - 78,000. The supply - side news has not been fully settled before the end of September, and the fundamental improvement provides support for the price. [15] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.64% to 79,900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.03% to 175.85 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. - In July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.53% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The alumina prices in most regions decreased slightly. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [5] Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. - The operating rates of some recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.41% to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. - In July, the refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 272,500 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.44% to 175.00 US dollars/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. - In July, the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.55% to 124,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 5.24% to - 183 US dollars/ton. [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. - The refined nickel import volume in August was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased. - The futures - spot price difference decreased by 18.68% to 370 yuan/ton. [13] Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. - The stainless steel net export volume in August was 34.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37%. [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.63% to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.68% to 76,050 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.45% to 898 US dollars/ton. [15] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. - In August, the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. [15]