大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250902
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-02 05:43
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10]. - In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - dominated situation will weaken. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased day - on - day, while the cost of purchased lithium mica decreased. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, and the cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower with sufficient profit margins [7]. - Basis: On September 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory decreased week - on - week, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the historical average [7]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [7]. - Expectation: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume is expected to increase by 33.62% month - on - month. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed different degrees of decline. The basis and futures closing prices also had corresponding changes [13][16]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate and related products had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. - Demand - side Data: The demand - side data such as the production and inventory of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines showed different trends over time [23]. - Import Volume: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed an overall upward trend, with significant increases in imports from Australia [23]. - Self - sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [23]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [29]. - Import Volume: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) also had corresponding changes [29]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [37][38][40]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate for production showed different trends over time [47]. - Processing Cost Composition: The processing cost composition of lithium spodumene and lithium mica included energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items, and showed different trends [47]. - Other Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonization also had corresponding changes [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Battery Price and Production: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [58][60]. - Battery Cost: The cost of lithium battery cells also had corresponding changes [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the profit of external raw material procurement also changed [63]. - Capacity Utilization and Production: The capacity utilization and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - Supply - demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - profit: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - Inventory and Trade Volume: The inventory, import, and export volume of ternary materials also had corresponding changes [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - profit: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [73]. - Operating Rate and Production: The monthly operating rate and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73][76]. - Inventory and Export Volume: The inventory and export volume of iron phosphate lithium also had corresponding changes [76][78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [81]. - Sales Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also had corresponding changes [82]. - Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers showed different trends [85].