大越期货沥青期货早报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; the inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3519 - 3561 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - related data: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 31.3998%, the sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 682,000 tons [8]. - Demand - related data: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86% [8]. - Cost - related data: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton [9]. - Leverage factors: The relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the lack of demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession, are negative factors [13][14]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Base - related data: On September 1st, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory - related data: The social inventory was 1270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; the in - plant inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67% [11]. - Disk - related data: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main position - related data: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11].