工业硅期货早报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8355 - 8635 for the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply side production scheduling has decreased and is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. The cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51200 - 53370 for the 2511 contract [7][8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory is 213,000 tons, at a low level. The organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons, at a high level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - blown 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 3,254 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On September 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 455 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week. The battery cell and component production also showed different degrees of increase, with the component production in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 1st, the price of N - type dense materials was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,285 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts showed an upward trend, with the price increase ranging from 0.79% to 1.25%. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the weekly sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.91%. The weekly production of sample enterprises increased by 5.51% [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts also showed an upward trend, with the price increase ranging from 0.88% to 5.51%. The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories increased by 11.10% [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate was 70.59%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The DMC weekly production showed a decreasing trend, and the DMC price remained stable [41]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.28%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%. The weekly opening rate of primary aluminum alloy was at a low level [53]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - The polysilicon industry cost showed a downward trend. The monthly production of polysilicon decreased, and the monthly demand also decreased. The monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus in most months [58][61].