大越期货原油早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The overnight attack on an oil tanker by the Houthi armed forces and the US considering giving up diplomatic efforts to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine have raised geopolitical concerns, stimulating oil prices to rise. However, as the summer peak - season demand ends, there is pressure on the upside. In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with an expected range of 485 - 495 for the short - term, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors like US diplomatic considerations, Houthi armed attacks, and India's oil imports. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is positive. Inventory data presents a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average is downward with the price below it, which is negative. As of August 26, the WTI crude oil main - contract long positions decreased while Brent crude oil long positions increased, overall neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep crude oil production unchanged at the upcoming meeting. OPEC+ over - production, Asian fuel consumption slowdown, and supply surges in the US, Brazil, and Canada have led to an oil glut, causing a 9% drop in oil prices this year. Brent crude futures traded near $68 per barrel on Monday [5]. - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked the "Scarlet Ray" oil tanker in the Red Sea. After the Israeli military's air - strike on Sanaa on August 28, the Houthi armed forces vowed to retaliate and escalate attacks on Israel [5]. - Amid deteriorating relations with the US, Modi reaffirmed India's partnership with Russia. Modi and Putin discussed bilateral cooperation in various fields and the Ukraine conflict. Modi also called for peace with Zelensky [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing while trade tariff risks are rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: On September 1, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil decreased by $0.50 (- 0.74%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), SC crude oil increased by 1.80, and Oman crude oil remained unchanged [7]. - Spot Quotes: Compared with the previous day, UK Brent increased by $0.57 (0.84%), WTI decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), Oman crude oil increased by $0.75 (1.07%), Shengli crude oil increased by $0.86 (1.32%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.64 (0.91%) [9]. - Inventory Data: As of August 22, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 974,000 barrels, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels. As of September 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.721 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of August 26, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of August 26, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [19].