《特殊商品》日报-20250902

Report 1: Industrial Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints In the short - term, industrial silicon prices were weakly volatile. With rising raw material costs and potential capacity clearance, the supply pressure may ease in the long - run. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and specifically, try long positions when the price is in the 8000 - 8500 range [1]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On August 29, the prices of various industrial silicon products mostly declined compared to August 28. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 2.16% [1]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of some contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 42.86% [1]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, with significant changes in different regions. Yunnan's production increased by 153.86%, while Xinjiang's decreased by 15.21%. The national operating rate increased by 2.47% [1]. - Inventory Changes: Most inventory indicators decreased slightly, with the national social inventory decreasing by 0.37% [1]. Report 2: Natural Rubber 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints New rubber listing is slow, overseas ship arrivals are scarce, inventory may continue to decline, and the fundamentals remain strong. It is expected that there is still upward space, with the 01 contract range expected to be between 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas, and consider short positions at high prices if the raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On August 29, the prices of most natural rubber products were stable or changed slightly. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.34% [2]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.02% [2]. - Fundamental Data: Thailand's production in June increased by 44.23%. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly, while tire exports in July increased by 10.51% [2]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.50%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.79% [2]. Report 3: Glass and Soda Ash 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to hold short positions entered at high prices [3]. - Glass: The market is in a negative feedback cycle, with weak demand at the rigid - demand end. In the short - term, consider short positions on rebounds, and in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass in different regions were mostly stable, with the price of the glass 2509 contract increasing by 2.68% [3]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of the soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.51% [3]. - Supply: Soda ash operating rate and weekly output decreased by 6.79%, while the float glass daily melting volume and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - Inventory: Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.64%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.26%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% [3]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of decline [3]. Report 4: Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was large, and there was still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices and consider short positions with put options at high prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, with the N - type material basis (average price) changing by 16.54% [4]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads: The main contract price decreased by 0.22%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 6.53%, and monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10%. Polysilicon imports increased by 47.48%, while exports decreased by 3.92% [4]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 14.46%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.68% [4]. Report 5: Logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the outer - market quotation continued to rise, the spot price increased moderately, and the arrival volume remained low. The inventory was at a low level and continued to decline. The market was in a weak - balance oscillation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of trying long positions on the 2601 contract at low prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: Log futures prices mostly declined. The 2511 contract price decreased by 1.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of the main standard delivery products were stable [5]. - Cost: The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.68% [5]. - Supply: The port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of ships decreased by 11.32%. The total inventory of national coniferous logs decreased by 0.33% [5]. - Demand: The demand increased slightly, with the daily average log delivery volume reaching 6.45 million cubic meters [5].