广发早知道：汇总版-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].