广发期货《黑色》日报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, black commodities declined significantly, with iron ore and coking coal showing signs of catch - up decline. In August, steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand gap widened, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The rebar market weakened first, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. - Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. However, high production levels still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. - Currently, steel prices have fallen from their highs. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have dropped to around 3100 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the profit per ton of steel has declined significantly. - In terms of operations, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited. One can sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the significant contraction of steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, one can consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global shipment volume of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume will continue to increase gradually in the short term. - During the military parade in Tangshan, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from its high but remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. The impact of production restrictions this week will be reflected in molten iron output. - In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the outbound shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased month - on - month. - After the military parade, molten iron output will decline slightly from its high, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a significant increase in the fundamentals. Since steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, molten iron output will remain at a high level in September. - On the 28th, the work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume. The demand during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period is questionable. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Coke futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. After the spot price increase, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation has slightly declined following the futures. - On the supply side, after the price increase was implemented, coking profits improved, but due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places, coking enterprise operations decreased slightly. - On the demand side, the molten iron output from blast furnaces has declined from its high. This week, molten iron output may continue to decline, but the impact is limited due to the short duration. - In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all seen slight inventory increases. The overall inventory is at a medium level. - The steel industry's work plan for stabilizing growth is negative for coke demand. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation is running weakly. - On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, coal mine operations have decreased slightly month - on - month, sales have slowed down, and some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has fallen following the futures, and downstream users are cautious about restocking. - On the demand side, due to production restrictions on Tangshan steel and coking in Shandong and Henan before the military parade, coking operations have decreased slightly, and the molten iron output from downstream blast furnaces has declined slightly from its high. This week, operations may continue to decline. - In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and borders have seen slight inventory increases, while coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills have seen slight inventory decreases. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. - The production restrictions caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi are not enough to reverse the downward trend of the spot price. The coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and futures contracts have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3208 yuan/ton to 3165 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3347 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 3173 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 22 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 65,000 tons to 8.846 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output increased by 15,000 tons to 313,000 tons, an increase of 5.0%, and the converter output increased by 44,000 tons to 1.893 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased by 164,000 tons to 6.234 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.655 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,000 tons to 14.679 million tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.6 to 8.9, an increase of 6.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 48,000 tons to 8.578 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 94,000 tons to 2.042 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.207 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 19.8 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 19.0 to - 58.5, a decrease of 48.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0%. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Jinshi 62% Fe index have also slightly decreased [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 1.327 million tons to 25.26 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.568 million tons, an increase of 7.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.315 million tons to 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average outbound shipment volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 71,000 tons to 318,600 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.108 million tons to 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.526 million tons to 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory decreased by 357,000 tons to 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58,300 tons to 90.072 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coke products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%, and the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 tons to 64.5 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 0.14%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 9,000 tons to 653,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 5,000 tons to 6.101 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The estimated supply - demand gap of coke decreased by 13,000 tons to - 57,000 tons, a decrease of 22.4% [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coking coal products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 943 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4%, and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines remained unchanged at 860,500 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 18,000 tons to 444,500 tons, an increase of 0.4% [5]. Demand - The coke output (weekly) decreased, which affected the demand for coking coal [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9,000 tons to 116,700 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 51,000 tons to 9.613 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% [5].