集运早报-20250902

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on September 2, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - For the EC2510 contract, the previous closing price was 1291.4, with a 2.41% increase, a basis of 482.2, a trading volume of 29155, an open interest of 52271, and a change in open interest of -989 [2] - For the EC2512 contract, the previous closing price was 1640.9, with a 5.00% increase, a basis of 132.7, a trading volume of 11198, an open interest of 16495, and a change in open interest of -823 [2] - For the EC2602 contract, the previous closing price was 1461.3, with a 3.78% increase, a basis of 312.3, a trading volume of 1540, an open interest of 4846, and a change in open interest of 157 [2] - For the EC2604 contract, the previous closing price was 1241.8, with a 3.11% increase, a basis of 531.8, a trading volume of 1721, an open interest of 7069, and a change in open interest of -67 [2] - For the EC2606 contract, the previous closing price was 1428.5, with a 3.81% increase, a basis of 345.1, a trading volume of 174, an open interest of 890, and a change in open interest of 23 [2] Group 3: Month - Spread Information - The EC2510 - 2512 month - spread was -349.5, with a day - on - day change of -47.8 and a week - on - week change of -24.5 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 179.6, with a day - on - day change of 25.0 and a week - on - week change of 5.0 [2] Group 4: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European Line) index was 1773.6 points on September 1, 2025, down 10.88% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.71% [2] - The SCFI (European Line) was 1481 dollars/TEU on September 1, 2025, down 11.21% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.35% [2] - The CCFI was 1685.8 points on August 29, 2025, down 4.09% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 1.83% [2] - The NCFI was 929.56 points on August 29, 2025, down 14.25% from the previous period, and the previous decline was 8.83% [2] Group 5: Weekly Outlook - Currently, downstream customers are booking cabins for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is 2270 dollars (equivalent to 1600 points on the disk), and for week 37 is 2125 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk) [2] - In September, the overall shipping capacity has been adjusted downward. The FAL3 of the OA Alliance will add a blank sailing in week 37. The FE3 of PA&MSC will add blank sailings in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and the FE4 will add a blank sailing in week 41 [2] - The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as blank sailings, it will be 296,000 and 281,000 TEU [2] - The market pattern in September is loose, and the upward momentum will continue for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' blank - sailing behavior. In terms of valuation, the price of the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract may decline in the short - term but is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [2] Group 6: Recent European Line Quote Information - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from 2120 to 2420 dollars, with an average of 2250 dollars (1550 points). The PA Alliance quotes 2200 - 2300 dollars, MSK quotes 2100 dollars (later rising to 2200 dollars), and the OA Alliance quotes 2300 - 2400 dollars [3] - For week 37, the latest average quote is 2100 dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). MSK quotes 1900 dollars (later rising to 1950 dollars), the PA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2150 dollars, and the OA Alliance quotes 2100 - 2300 dollars [3] Group 7: Related News - On September 1, US media disclosed the US plan to rebuild Gaza, aiming to control the region for at least 10 years [4] - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi rebels said they attacked the "ScarletRay" oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli Defense Forces launched an air strike on Sanaa on August 28. On August 31, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi said they would retaliate and escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [4] Group 8: Note - The XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [5]