永安期货有色早报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. With supply disruptions and strong underlying support, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structures from September to October and potential squeeze risks [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly. With expected inventory depletion in September and a low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to the far - month monthly and internal - external reverse spreads [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound with the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and be in a short - position configuration in the medium and long term. Internal - external positive spreads can be held, and monthly positive spreads can be noted [2][3]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average. With the cooling of macro - level anti - involution sentiment and the ongoing situation in Indonesia, continuous attention is needed [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the Indonesian demonstration incident [7]. - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level oscillation next week and may test the 17,000 mark [9]. - Tin prices oscillated upward this week. With short - term supply - demand weakness, attention should be paid to the potential supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [12]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress. In the medium and long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and the price elasticity is large when supply - side disturbance speculation materializes [17][18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, with a change of - 15; the premium and discount changed by 169; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1212 [1]. - Fundamentals: Market orders showed resilience, and the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons in copper rod operating rates was not obvious. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of recycled copper rods in some areas declined, raising concerns about anode copper production in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 110, 110, and 100 respectively; the domestic alumina price decreased by 8 [1]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, with imports from January to July providing an increment. August was a seasonal off - peak season for demand, with a slight improvement in the second half of the month. Inventory was expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount changed by - 10; the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90. Domestic social inventory oscillated upward, and LME inventory decreased by 625 [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic TC was difficult to rise, while imported TC increased. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average with potential supply shortages [2][3]. Nickel - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai nickel increased by 2150; the spot import return increased by 542.75 [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged [7]. - Fundamentals: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs, nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chromium - iron prices increased slightly. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable [7]. Lead - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount increased by 10; LME inventory decreased by 1500 [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the production of recycled lead was at a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory was high, and the market's peak season was not prosperous [9]. Tin - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the spot import return decreased by 268.20; LME inventory increased by 145 [12]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic smelters cut production, and overseas production faced constraints. On the demand side, solder demand had limited elasticity, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 105; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 53 [15]. - Fundamentals: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' resumption of production was stable with an expected acceleration. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress, and in the medium and long term, there is over - capacity [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Data: From August 26 to September 1, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 1300; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1310 [17]. - Fundamentals: The market was affected by supply - side disturbances and downstream seasonal peak seasons. The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and price elasticity is large [17][18].