瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View In the pre - new cotton - dominant period, the supply of old cotton in the domestic market is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the spot price is firm, with the futures price expected to fluctuate upward. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,995 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 54,518 lots, a decrease of 2,529 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it's - 510 lots, an increase of 10 lots [2]. - The main contract positions of cotton are 521,766 lots, a decrease of 7,167 lots; for cotton yarn, it's 24,498 lots, an increase of 536 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 6,131 sheets, a decrease of 189 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 60 sheets, an increase of 3 sheets [2]. - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,492 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,766 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,282 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,463 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,301 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 85.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The profit from imported cotton is 1,298 yuan/ton, an increase of 252 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the grey - cloth inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 15,161,759,000 US dollars, a decrease of 104,955,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,604,009,000 US dollars, a decrease of 444,198,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.77%, an increase of 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.4%, a decrease of 0.34% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 29, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory is 1.547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 165,600 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 849,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,200 tons (a decrease of 13.74%); the commercial cotton in the inland area is 386,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,900 tons (a decrease of 3.95%) [2]. - ICE was closed on Monday. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.18%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.20%. Domestically, cotton is in the de - inventory stage, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, with the spot price firm [2]. - China's quota for the sliding - scale duty on imported cotton for processing trade in 2025 is 200,000 tons [2].