瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract traded in a range. A personal consumer loan subsidy policy was implemented on September 1st, and many banks are actively promoting its implementation. The weekly output of rebar increased with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand, leading to a continued increase in inventory. Overall, the steel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and the futures price found temporary support around 3100. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed a golden cross at a low level with shrinking green bars. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,117.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume was 1,675,244 lots, up 41,530 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 196,211 lots, up 15,317 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 70 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 215,221 tons, up 3,683 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 181 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 768.00 yuan/wet ton, up 8.00 yuan. The price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2836 million tons, up 0.1227 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2056 million tons, up 0.0591 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6962 million tons, down 0.0491 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.5377 million tons, up 0.2126 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.658 million tons, up 0.14 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6,387.31 million square meters, down 54.10 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. 2.6 Industry News - On August 25, 2025, Wuzhou Yongda Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. successfully dismantled a 35 - ton electric arc furnace and a 40 - ton electric arc furnace, marking a step forward in resolving over - capacity, technological upgrading, and green development. Since August 25, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out short - term shutdowns for maintenance. As of the morning of September 2nd, 78 coal mines in Shanxi had shut down voluntarily due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons [2].