瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol production increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity was more than the loss of the overhaul and production - cut capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises increased last week due to the start of a new long - term contract in the northwest region and the resumption of some overhaul projects. The port inventory of methanol accelerated to accumulate significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate increased last week and is expected to continue to increase slightly this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2325 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 107,545 lots, an increase of 3,658 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,516, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 192.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 137 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 257 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton; the price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 293 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 65 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.02 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 88.9 tons, an increase of 18.28 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 41.03 tons, an increase of 4.05 tons. The import profit of methanol was 1.62 yuan/ton, down 4.03 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.04%, unchanged; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.54%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins was 85.35%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 973 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.69%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.12%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.6%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.6%, up 1.12 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 27, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.34 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.70 tons, an increase of 0.96 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 129.93 tons, an increase of 22.33 tons from the previous data. As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.41%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [3]