瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation where supply growth may slow down and demand gradually recovers. The supply side has an oversupply and large inventory pressure, while the demand side is expected to increase due to the approaching traditional consumption peak season. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light position in a weak - oscillating manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,837 hands, a decrease of 7,269 hands; the position of the main contract is 348,109 hands, an increase of 8,976 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,197 hands/ton, an increase of 1,310 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 77,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,090 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 942 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 2,645 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 - type, 622 - power - type, 523 - single - crystal - type) remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point. The monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000, a decrease of 25,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000, a decrease of 67,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000, an increase of 2,286,000; the monthly export volume is 225,000, an increase of 20,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,308,000, an increase of 600,000. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 54.23%, an increase of 1.89 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 57.97%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,778, an increase of 24,686; the total put position is 150,923, a decrease of 6,413; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.94%, a decrease of 7.7343 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.35%, a decrease of 0.0074 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, new - energy vehicle brands had good performance. Leapmotor delivered 57,066 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of over 88%; XPeng delivered 37,709 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 168.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.7%; NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 55.2%; Xiaomi delivered over 30,000 vehicles. Other brands also had month - on - month growth [2]. - Tianqi Lithium has completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and is promoting quality improvement and cost - reduction technology optimization. A 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan [2]. - Quanzhou Lvli Technology plans to invest 20 million yuan in a waste lithium - battery recycling and echelon utilization project with an annual processing capacity of 6,000 tons [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's new - energy project investment was about 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%. Wind and photovoltaic investment was 560.4 billion yuan, accounting for 40.8% of the industry share, a year - on - year decrease of 44.4% [2].