瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250902

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The recent strong performance of the precious metals market is driven by factors such as the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Trump's pressure on Fed officials boosting risk - aversion sentiment, and the trading sentiment of the gold - silver ratio returning to the historical average. However, if the economic resilience is significantly stronger than expected, the gold price may have a phased correction, but the probability of a sharp decline is low. Technically, both gold and silver are in the over - bought zone and may need short - term adjustment [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Closing Price: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 804.32 yuan/gram, up 3.76; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 49 yuan/kilogram [2] - Position: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 138,624 hands, down 2,067; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract decreased by 12,097 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 176,304 hands, up 11,434; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 3,513 hands [2] - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 40,191 kilograms, up 447; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver increased by 8,001 kilograms [2] Spot Market - Spot Price: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 802 yuan/gram, up 6.62; the silver spot price increased by 165 yuan/kilogram [2] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.32 yuan/gram, up 2.86; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract increased by 116 yuan/kilogram [2] Supply - Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74; the silver ETF holdings decreased by 22.59 tons [2] - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 214,311 contracts, up 1,721; the silver CTFC non - commercial net position decreased by 83 contracts [2] - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver decreased by 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver decreased by 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.2%, up 0.98; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold increased by 0.7% [2] - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.18%, up 3.9; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.19%, up 3.91 [2] Industry News - Ray Dalio said that international investors are shifting from US Treasuries to gold, and the US economy is on the verge of a debt crisis. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 4.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 47.9%. Spot gold broke through $3,500, and domestic gold jewelry prices increased significantly [2]