瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250902

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slows down and demand gradually recovers, and the industry outlook is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,865 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 12,236 lots, up 6,550 lots. The LME copper inventory was 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper was 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,160 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,105 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 86.27 dollars/ton, down 6.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.48 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,640 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220.7 million pieces, up 183,435.3 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.25%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.00%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.25%, up 0.0156%; the ratio of call to put options at the money was 1.35, up 0.0981 [2] Industry News - The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to a more than three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st. ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. New energy vehicle brands announced their August "report cards", with many brands achieving significant growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a keynote speech at the 25th meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [2]