瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250902

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].