Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices, and the production in August reached a high level for the year. However, the pressure on production enterprises to sell goods has increased significantly under the game of rising mainstream supply prices of butadiene and cis - butadiene. The inventory of production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. This week, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. [2] - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' devices operated stably last week, but individual enterprises' overhauls dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' devices also ran stably, with most continuing the previous production - control state, and individual enterprises' overhauls and production reduction affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have overhaul plans at the beginning of this month, which may still drag down the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,670 - 12,200 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions had different changes. The basis of synthetic rubber was 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at 68.15 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.03 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was at 64.69 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.68 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 596.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.57%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.17 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.77%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, a decrease of 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. [2] - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250902
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-02 09:22