瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August, and demand shows signs of improvement, so the raw sugar price continues to fluctuate at a low level [2] - Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, the import pressure is released, the sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the current de - stocking process. For new crops, the new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a significant increase in imports, the upcoming opening of northern sugar mills, and high - expected new - season production will suppress the sugar price trend. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the main contract position was 356,276 lots, a decrease of 2,505 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 13,202 sheets, a decrease of 232 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,766 lots, a decrease of 3,204 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 6 sheets, a decrease of 1 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,786 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was not provided, and that of Thai sugar was not provided. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan; in Nanning was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Liuzhou was 5,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.68%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 8.68%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.81%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.41%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Indian government announced that in the 2025/26 season, it will allow the use of sugar - cane juice, syrup, and various molasses to produce ethanol without quantity restrictions. ICE was closed on Monday. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05% [2]