瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250902

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with a slightly reduced decline rate. The inbound volume increased month - on - month, but the outbound volume increase was average. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement was relatively moderate, and it is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the short term. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operated stably last week, while some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment also operated stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still have a certain impact on short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,520 - 13,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of No. 20 rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,220 lots, up 2,236 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 38,853 lots, down 2,509 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,691 lots, down 1,523 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber was - 7,238 lots, down 857 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 167,920 tons, down 3,160 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 45,764 tons, up 102 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 770 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,034 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 324 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.23 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 227.4 US dollars/ton, down 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.8 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, down 0.91 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.8%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.87%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.12%, up 0.71 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.14%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas with heavy rainfall were mainly in southern Thailand, southern Vietnam, and southwestern Cambodia, which increased the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also increasing the impact on tapping work. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [2]