大越期货玻璃早报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream phased restocking has led to the reduction of glass factory inventories, but the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range shock mode [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, the industry cold - repair has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. The downstream deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, and the real estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis of float glass is - 78 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely to Rise: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Likely to Fall: The real estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main basis is - 78 yuan, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Cost: The glass production profit has declined [2]. - Supply: The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.49%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [21][23]. - Demand: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [27]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [42]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].