PTA、MEG早报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the device maintenance effect is less than expected, the spot market liquidity is okay, the spot basis is weakening, and the price fluctuates following the cost side. Although the processing margin has slightly improved from the low point, it is still at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrivals in early September are still moderately low, and there is still room for a moderate decline in port inventories in the short term. In terms of demand, the average load in September is expected to reach 91.5%, and the rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the ethylene glycol market has been under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the short term, with strong support below. Attention should be paid to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures closed slightly lower, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, the spot basis was weak, mainly traded among traders, with sporadic purchases from polyester factories. The goods for this week and next week were traded at a discount of 48 - 50 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4710 - 4750. The goods for mid - to - late September were traded at a discount of 45 - 50 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 49 to the 01 contract. The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a 0.1 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5][6]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined, and the market trading was active. In the night session, ethylene glycol adjusted slightly. The spot negotiation and transaction were carried out at a premium of 82 - 85 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. There was a market rumor that a cracking device in Shandong might start earlier, and the ethylene glycol market dropped significantly during the day. In the afternoon, the spot was traded at a low of around 4420 yuan/ton, and polyester factories and traders replenished their stocks actively. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market continued to decline. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 527 - 530 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped to around 520 - 525 US dollars/ton. During the day, the recent shipments were traded at around 519 - 525 US dollars/ton, and individual suppliers participated in replenishing stocks. The inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a decrease of 9.42 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, total demand, and inventory changes [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory changes [13]. 3.5. Price - Multiple price - related charts are provided, including bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc. [15][18][22] 3.6. Inventory Analysis - Multiple inventory - related charts are provided, including PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and various polyester fiber inventories [41][42][44] 3.7. Polyester Upstream Start - up - Charts of the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain are provided [52][53][55] 3.8. Polyester Downstream Start - up - Charts of the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industry chain are provided [56][57][59] 3.9. PTA Processing Fee - A chart of the PTA processing fee in China is provided [61] 3.10. MEG Profit - Charts of the production profits of different production methods of ethylene glycol (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) are provided [62][63] 3.11. Polyester Fiber Profit - Charts of the production profits of polyester fiber short - fiber, polyester fiber long - fiber DTY, POY, and FDY are provided [65][67][68]