永安期货有色早报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. The market order trading remained resilient. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and there were concerns about anode copper production in September and October. There was potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - peak. The inventory was expected to decline in September. Attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply increased, and the demand was seasonally weak. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. [4] - Nickel supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] - Stainless steel supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills. The demand was mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] - Lead prices fluctuated this week. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week. [11] - Tin prices fluctuated upward this week, mainly driven by the news of smelter maintenance in Yunnan. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate. The short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking, and the medium - and long - term outlook was in a cycle of bottom - level oscillation. [17] - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The price had strong downward support. [19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 20, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. [1] - Fundamentals: Market orders were resilient, the spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the anode copper processing fee declined. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly. [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to the changes in the structure between September - October months and inside - outside, and the potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 90, and the LME inventory decreased by 1450. [1] - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, demand was in the seasonal off - peak in August, and the inventory was expected to decline in September. [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 275. [4] - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the domestic demand was seasonally weak, and the overseas demand was average. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. [4] - Strategy: In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. Hold the inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between months. [4][5] Nickel - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 300, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. [5][6] - Fundamentals: Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and the premium was stable. [6] - Strategy: Pay attention to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the inventory in Xifu remained stable. [9] - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the cost was relatively stable. [9] - Strategy: Pay attention to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] Lead - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the lead price fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1525. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons. [11] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. [11] - Strategy: It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week, and it might test the 17,000 mark. [11] Tin - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the tin price fluctuated upward, and the LME inventory increased by 20. [14] - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. There was a potential for a short - term mismatch between supply and demand in September - October. [14] - Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 371. [17] - Fundamentals: The production in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate, and the short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking. [17] - Strategy: In the long - term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom. [17] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: From August 27 to September 2, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 810. [19] - Fundamentals: The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The monthly balance turned to continuous de - stocking. [19] - Strategy: The price had strong downward support. [19]