Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: The supply has decreased significantly due to strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts. The total sample inventory has decreased by 28.1 tons compared to last week. Considering factors such as the decline in steel prices, the narrowing of steel mill profits, and the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - Coke: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is still restricted, and the supply is at a low level. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement rhythm of coke has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the supply will increase after the parade, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events have led to a significant reduction in supply. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of - 57.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons compared to last week [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position has decreased [4]. - Expectation: The decline in steel prices and the narrowing of steel mill profits have led to a low acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises. With the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - Coke - Fundamentals: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted, and the supply is at a low level. The procurement rhythm of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 3.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons compared to last week [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position has increased [8]. - Expectation: After the parade, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. Factors Affecting Coking Coal - Positive Factors: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - Negative Factors: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weakness of steel prices [6]. Factors Affecting Coke - Positive Factors: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Negative Factors: The squeeze on the profit space of steel mills and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons compared to last week [22]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons compared to last week [27]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [32]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].
焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-3）-20250903
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-03 01:43