Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 - Report Type: Steel Futures Morning Report - Covered Products: Rebar (Threaded Steel) and Hot-Rolled Coil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Rebar: Overall, the market is complex with mixed signals. The demand is weak, the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, but there are factors like low production and inventory, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. It is recommended to approach with a high - level oscillation mindset [2][3] - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand situation has weakened, exports are blocked, but there are also positive factors such as acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. A high - level oscillation approach is also suggested [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand: Demand shows no improvement, downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The inventory is at a low level with a slight decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3240, and the basis is 123, indicating a bullish signal [2] - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.5377 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, considered neutral [2] - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [2] - Main Position: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - Expectation: The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [2] Factors - Positive: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - Negative: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, considered neutral [6] - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3350, and the basis is 52, a bullish signal [6] - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.8578 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, considered neutral [6] - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [6] - Main Position: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and the short position is increasing [6] - Expectation: The market supply - demand has weakened, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [6] Factors - Positive: Acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - Negative: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]
大越期货螺卷早报-20250903
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-03 01:43