沪锌期货早报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw a volatile upward movement in Shanghai Zinc, with increased trading volume and reduced positions from both long and short sides, more so from the short side. Technically, the price is above the short - term moving averages, and short - term indicators show certain trends, but the short - side strength has an expanding advantage [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The basis is - 155 (spot price is 22170), which is a negative factor [2]. - On September 2, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 55600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 998 tons to 38955 tons, which is a neutral factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a positive factor [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (September 2) - For different delivery months, there are details of opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the opening price was 22175, the high price was 22380, the low price was 22165, the closing price was 22325, the settlement reference price was 22265, the price increased by 130 (first measure) and 70 (second measure), the trading volume was 125688 lots, the trading value was 1399414230 yuan, and the open interest decreased by 8523 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (September 2) - Zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was priced at 16780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshan was 22170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 4041 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4459 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20600 yuan/ton, unchanged; secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 21 - September 1, 2025) - As of September 1, the total inventory in major Chinese markets was 133300 tons, an increase of 85000 tons compared to August 25 and 35000 tons compared to August 28 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (September 2) - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE were 38955 tons, an increase of 998 tons. Among them, Guangdong had 20122 tons (an increase of 866 tons), Tianjin had 18783 tons (no change), Shanghai had 50 tons (no change), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang had 0 tons (no change) [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (September 2) - The total LME zinc inventory was 55600 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous day. The registered warrants were 42850 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12750 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 22.93% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (September 2) - Zinc concentrate prices in various regions with a 50% grade increased by 30 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, the price was 16880 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it was also 16880 yuan/ton [9]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (September 2) - Zinc ingot prices from different smelters increased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting was 22420 yuan/ton; from Sanjiaojingzhongmen was 22750 yuan/ton [13]. 9. June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459700 tons, the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470300 tons [15]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (September 2) - For different regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees vary. For example, in Huludao, the lowest was 3900 yuan/metal ton, the highest was 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the average was 4000 yuan/metal ton. The import processing fee for 48% grade was 80 - 100 dollars/kiloton, with an average of 90 dollars/kiloton [17]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (September 2, Contract zn2510) - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 members was 197716 lots, a decrease of 18393 lots. In terms of long positions, the total long positions of 20 members were 71249 lots, a decrease of 5256 lots. In terms of short positions, the total short positions of 20 members were 72412 lots, a decrease of 8249 lots [18].