Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are still at a relatively high level, with overall high inventory. The domestic urea market remains in a state of significant oversupply, while export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the urea futures market has experienced a volatile decline. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of relaxed urea export policies, leading to a rise in futures prices, but market sentiment has since cooled. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is generally at a high level. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, while agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of domestic urea significantly exceeds demand, but export profits remain strong [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 44, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.5%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main UR contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Expectation Analysis - The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the domestic market remains in a state of significant oversupply [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Strong international prices [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the deliverable spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Shandong spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Henan spot is 1,810 yuan (-0 yuan), and the FOB price in China is 3,031 yuan [6]. Futures Market - The price of the UR01 contract is 1,746 yuan (+3 yuan), the price of the UR05 contract is 1,787 yuan (+3 yuan), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1,677 yuan (+7 yuan) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 7,205 tons (-0 tons), the comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the factory inventory of UR is 859,000 tons (-0 tons), and the port inventory of UR is 543,000 tons (-0 tons) [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20250903
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-03 01:59