Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold - Likely positive factors: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - Likely negative factors: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - Silver - Likely positive factors: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - Likely negative factors: Similar to those of gold [14]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - ETF Positions: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].
贵金属早报-20250903
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-03 01:59