大越期货甲醇早报-20250903

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is becoming more prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may be under pressure to decline this week. Inland, there are few recent maintenance devices, and multiple methanol devices such as Yigao and Shilin restarted in late August, leading to a significant increase in supply. The reduction of external procurement by CTO plants in Ningxia, the impact of large - scale events in early September on demand in the North China region, and the reverse flow of low - priced port goods to the inland all suppress the inland market. In the port area, Iranian shipments are concentrated, and it is expected that the port will continue to accumulate inventory. However, as the price drops, the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the re - export window. With a weak macro - level and fundamentals, the short - term driving force is still downward. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, and MA2601 will fluctuate between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, in terms of fundamentals, with no macro - level positive and prominent supply - demand contradictions, the price is expected to be under pressure. The current situation shows that the inland supply has increased, and the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis is - 112, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has significantly increased by 13.18 tons to 106.60 tons, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Positive Factors: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late August. CTO plants in the Northwest are procuring methanol externally [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have restarted. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has significantly declined. Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in different regions has different changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.67% this week, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged. The futures closing price of methanol has decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton. The basis, import price difference, and other price - related indicators have also changed to varying degrees [8][9]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 7.22 tons to 64.48 tons, and the inventory in South China ports has increased by 5.96 tons to 42.12 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load. For example, Shaanxi Heimao, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, and some plants such as Shanxi Qinyang are operating at a reduced load [60]. - Overseas Methanol Plants: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [61]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are in maintenance or operating at a low level. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Salt Lake's plant has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with the recovery time undetermined [62].