大越期货原油早报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to maintain crude oil production at the meeting this weekend and temporarily halt previous accelerated production increases. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Geopolitically, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain deadlocked, and there are no current plans for leaders' meetings. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate at high levels, with short - term trading in the range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Turkish President Erdogan discussed ways to end the Ukraine war with Russian President Putin in China and called Ukrainian President Zelensky, but both sides are "not ready" for a leaders' meeting. Investors are watching the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 for production policy adjustment clues, and market institutions expect no lifting of the voluntary production cuts of eight oil - producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Basis: On September 2, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.9 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.28 per barrel, with a basis of 42.62 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 22 decreased by 974,000 barrels (expected decrease of 1.725 million barrels), the EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 2.392 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.863 million barrels), the Cushing area inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels (previous increase of 419,000 barrels), and as of September 2, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.721 million barrels, remaining unchanged, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average, with a neutral outlook [3]. - Main Position: As of August 26, the main long positions in WTI crude oil decreased, while those in Brent crude oil increased, with a neutral outlook [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower - court decision that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing certain tariffs, but investors should not expect significant short - term changes due to slow Supreme Court proceedings and potential congressional intervention [5]. - Kazakhstan's crude oil production (excluding condensate) in August increased to 1.88 million barrels per day from 1.84 million barrels per day in July, a 2% increase, and was higher than its OPEC quota of 1.53 million barrels per day. The total production of oil and condensate increased from 2.09 million barrels per day in July to 2.15 million barrels per day in August [5]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss production policies on Sunday, and the market is preparing for a global supply surplus, which may put pressure on oil prices. However, the supply surplus has not yet been reflected in inventory data or the crude oil futures structure. OPEC+ agreed to fully lift the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, and it is generally expected that the organization will maintain the current policy in the face of macro - economic uncertainties [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - Bearish Factors: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.99 (1.45%), $1.58 (2.47%), 6.20 yuan (1.28%), and $1.33 (1.89%) respectively [7]. - Spot Quotes: The spot prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim, Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim, and Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased by $0.41 (0.59%), $0.90 (1.39%), $0.44 (0.62%), $1.19 (1.82%), and $1.20 (1.70%) respectively [9]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of August 26, the net long position was 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 from the previous period [17]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of August 26, the net long position was 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 from the previous period [19].