大越期货燃料油早报-20250903

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the analysis of fuel oil fundamentals, the overall price is expected to be slightly bullish, with FU2510 expected to trade in the range of 2820 - 2860 and LU2511 in the range of 3510 - 3560 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has declined slightly, but expected lower Western arbitrage cargo arrivals in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the market's downside in the short term. The 9 - 10 month swap spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 42 cents per ton on August 29 [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.03 million barrels in the week of August 27, also a bullish factor. However, the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions for high - sulfur and a shift from long to short for low - sulfur, which is bearish. Overall, the price is expected to be slightly bullish due to the overnight geopolitical risk event and slightly improved fundamentals [3]. - The recent market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia, while bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and weak upstream crude oil prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous and current prices, price changes, and percentage changes of FU and LU main contracts are provided. The FU main contract futures price increased from 2820 to 2841 (up 0.74%), and the LU main contract futures price increased from 3471 to 3542 (up 2.05%). The FU basis decreased from 108 to 83 (- 23.53%), and the LU basis decreased from 133 to 41 (- 69.49%) [5]. - The previous and current prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various spot fuel oils (Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle East high - sulfur, and Singapore diesel) are presented. For example, the Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from $497.00 to $505.00 (up 1.61%), while the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price decreased from $400.86 to $398.63 (- 0.56%) [6]. 2. Multi - Empty Concerns - Bullish factor: Possible intensification of sanctions against Russia - Bearish factors: Optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified; Upstream crude oil prices are weak - Market driver: Resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is slightly bearish, but short - term downside may be limited. The 9 - 10 month swap spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 42 cents per ton on August 29; neutral - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is $83 per ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is $41 per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 27 was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels; bullish - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat; neutral - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, shifting from long to short; bearish - Expectation: The price is expected to be slightly bullish. FU2510 is expected to trade in the range of 2820 - 2860, and LU2511 in the range of 3510 - 3560 [3] 4. Spread Data The report does not provide specific spread data content other than the high - low sulfur futures spread chart [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 18 to August 27 is provided. For example, the inventory on June 18 was 22.899 million barrels, a decrease of 0.22 million barrels compared to the previous period, and on August 27, it was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].