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工业硅期货早报-20250903
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-03 02:18
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has slightly increased. It is expected to fluctuate between 8330 - 8610 [3]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the short - term supply - side production scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate between 50780 - 52970 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% week - on - week increase [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase [3]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons (low), organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons (high) [3]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the wet season has weakened [3]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week [3]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [3]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% week - on - week increase. The planned output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.31GW, an 8.29% week - on - week increase; the battery cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase; the component output in August was 49.2GW, a 4.45% month - on - month increase [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,380 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased by 14.45% week - on - week and is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is long, and the long position has decreased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, with some contracts rising and some falling [15]. - Spot prices of different types of silicon in East China had different changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed various changes, with some rising, some remaining stable, and some falling [17]. - Inventory: Silicon wafer inventory, battery cell inventory, and component inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends are presented through historical data charts [19]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends of different regions and overall inventory are shown through historical data charts [22]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends of different regions and overall are presented through historical data charts [26]. - Industrial silicon cost trends of different sample regions are shown through historical data charts [32]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different periods [34][37]. - For the downstream of industrial silicon: - Organic silicon: DMC production, price, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends are presented through historical data charts [40]. - Aluminum alloy: Price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are shown through historical data charts [49]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of different links (silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component) are presented through historical data charts [57].