Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders quoted prices with narrow fluctuations, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. The impact of maintenance is weakening, and new production capacity is continuously being released. The supply pressure brought by the new device of Daxie Petrochemical on the PP side, with a second - line device still to be put into operation in September, the production capacity pressure is continuously rising. The downstream is in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season. The operating loads of plastic weaving and BOPP are slowly increasing. Injection molding has been partially improved due to the release of school supplies orders during the back - to - school season, but the overall recovery trend is not good. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of consumption during the "Golden September" peak season. The supply - demand contradiction of PE is not obvious for the time being. The short - term maintenance loss has increased again, and the new production capacity is slowly being put into operation. The supply pressure is acceptable. The loads of downstream pipes and other products remain low. The raw material and finished product inventories are maintained at a relatively low level. The follow - up of agricultural films has improved compared with the previous period, and the operating load has entered the seasonal upward range, which is expected to drive the de - stocking of social inventory. Plastics may run strongly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The opening price of L2601 was 7275 yuan/ton, closing at 7252 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.06%), with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 12,546 lots in positions to 401,368 lots. PP2601 closed at 6943 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan, a decline of 0.09%, with an increase of 14,100 lots in positions to 572,000 lots [5][6] 2. Industry News - On September 2, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.41%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons. The PE market price fluctuated slightly. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7130 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6610 - 6680 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The inflow of propylene from outside the region decreased, and production enterprises still had the intention to continue to raise prices slightly. Downstream factories had certain rigid - demand support, but the cost pressure continued to increase, and the factories' acceptance of propylene prices decreased. The PP market adjusted slightly. Downstream factory procurement mentality was cautious, and the inquiry was less than the previous day. The morning trading in the market was average. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6770 - 6980 yuan/ton, in East China was 6800 - 6980 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6760 - 7050 yuan/ton [7][8] 3. Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [12][15][16]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250903
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-03 02:36