建信期货豆粕日报-20250903

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Futures Contracts: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts, including 2601, 2509, and 2511, all declined. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3050, down 10 (-0.33%); the 2509 contract closed at 3006, down 7 (-0.23%); and the 2511 contract closed at 3022, down 11 (-0.36%) [6]. - External Market: The US soybean futures contracts were volatile, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent decline in soybean meal prices was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade negotiations and the unexpectedly high excellent - rate of US soybeans [6]. Reasons for the Recent Decline - Trade Negotiations: With the approaching US soybean harvest season, US farmers are under increasing pressure. As the largest buyer of US soybeans, China has not purchased new - season US soybeans. The US Soybean Association urged Trump to repair trade relations with China, and Trump said he might visit China this year. There were also rumors of direct state - reserve purchases of US soybeans, causing the market to give back the previous optimistic premium [6]. - Excellent Rate: The latest excellent rate of US soybeans announced by USDA this week was 69%, higher than the expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. The current excellent rate is the highest in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [6]. Medium - term Outlook - Import Substitution: In the fourth quarter, with the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and supplement with some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions [6]. - Cost Trend: As Brazilian soybeans are being sold out, the marginal price may rise. Considering weather factors, there is little possibility of a significant decline in the Brazilian FOB price in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the import of Canadian rapeseed blocked, the medium - term outlook is still bullish after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast: StoneX predicted that the production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season (sown in September) would reach a record 178.2 million tons, stable compared with the August forecast. If confirmed, the production would increase by 5.6% compared with the previous year due to the expected increase in planting area and average national yield [8]. - Pakistan's Purchase Agreement: Pakistan is expected to sign a major purchase agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [8]. - Brazilian Regulatory Decision: A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE, which required global soybean traders to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]