《黑色》日报-20250903

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, and profit margins have declined significantly. In the future, attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and the demand for steel during the peak season. There are expectations of seasonal strengthening in demand from September to October, but high production levels will still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. Unilateral short - selling space is limited, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money put options and going long on the ratio of steel to ore can be considered [1]. - For the iron ore industry, the global shipment volume has increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. The demand side is affected by production restrictions during the parade, and iron water production has declined from its high. The fundamentals lack a strong upward driving force, but steel mills' profitability remains high, so iron water production in September will still be at a relatively high level. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. A neutral view is taken on unilateral trading, with an expected trading range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. - For the coke industry, futures prices have fluctuated sharply, with spot prices rising and then stabilizing. Supply has been affected by production restrictions, and demand has declined due to steel production restrictions. Inventory is at a medium level, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, futures prices have trended weakly, and spot prices have been generally weak and stable. Supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension for rectification, and demand has declined due to production restrictions in the steel and coking industries. Inventory has decreased slightly, and coal prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, such as the cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreasing by 36 yuan/ton. However, the profit margins of steel products have declined significantly, with the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreasing by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production decreased by 0.7 to 240.1, a decline of 0.3%. The production of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot and futures have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 351.5% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume of iron ore increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 7.3%. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 5.5%. The demand side was affected by production restrictions, with the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 to 240.1, a decline of 0.2% [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 0.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures have fluctuated. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The profit margins of the coking and coal - mining industries have declined [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of coke and coking coal has been affected by production restrictions. The daily average production of coke in all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 to 64.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 1.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal has also decreased due to steel production restrictions [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke and coking coal has shown different trends. The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.1 to 887.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.1%. The coking coal inventory in some areas has decreased, while in others, it has increased slightly [5].