大越期货沥青期货早报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - Expectation: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - Likely positive factors: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - Likely negative factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - Main logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Basis: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - Futures price trend: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis trend: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - Spread analysis: - Main - contract spread: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - Crude oil cracking spread: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - Regional market price trends: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - Production volume: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - Local refinery asphalt production volume: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - Capacity utilization rate: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - Estimated maintenance loss volume: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - Social and factory inventory: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - Factory inventory - inventory ratio: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - Import and export situation: - Export and import trends: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - Korean asphalt import price difference trend: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke production volume: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - Apparent consumption volume: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - Downstream machinery demand: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - Asphalt开工率 by use: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - Downstream开工率: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].