建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250903

Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg market is currently under significant pressure. The peak - season price increase did not materialize as expected, leading to a bear - dominated market. The supply pressure is high, and it will take a long time for the market to return to a supply - demand balance. It is not advisable for investors to blindly buy at the bottom, and a complete market reversal may not occur until the end of the fourth quarter or early next year, which requires continuous monitoring of the data on egg - laying hen replenishment and culling [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The egg futures market showed mixed trends today. The 2509 contract closed at 2804, down 20 points or 0.71% with a trading volume of 4 and an open interest of 97 (down 4). The 2510 contract closed at 2959, up 11 points or 0.37% with a trading volume of 507,088 and an open interest of 441,830 (down 42,580). The 2511 contract closed at 3035, up 35 points or 1.17% with a trading volume of 283,082 and an open interest of 290,211 (up 887). The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Due to the failure of the peak - season price increase, the market is dominated by bears. There is no obvious technical support, and the inventory adjustment is in the early stage. It is not recommended to blindly buy at the bottom. Even if there is a rebound, it should be regarded as a short - term one. A complete reversal depends on the data of replenishment and culling, which may take until the end of the fourth quarter or early next year [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Egg - laying Hen Inventory: As of the end of August, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, up 0.7% month - on - month and 6.0% year - on - year, showing an upward trend [9]. - Chick Hatch Quantity: In August, the monthly hatch quantity of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.81 million, slightly lower than 39.98 million in July and significantly lower than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024. The recent low breeding profit has started to change farmers' expansion mentality [9][10]. - Culling Volume: From the first to the third week of August 28, the national culling volumes were 14.42 million, 16.76 million, and 18.51 million respectively, showing an upward trend. As of August 28, the average culling age was 496 days, 4 days earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - laying hen breeding profit, egg basis of the 09 contract, 09 - 10 spread, average price in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of the 10 contract, but no in - depth analysis of these data is provided in the text [12][13][17].